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The Data that Drives Policy Lives Here.

THE FED’S FAILURE TO PROJECT UNEMPLOYMENT, AGAIN

[infogram id=”42c5ac3e-8664-4353-8584-de872ba7cab0″ prefix=”NV4″ format=”interactive” title=”2009 FED UNEMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS 12092021”] Key Points: In the midst of the Great Recession, the FOMC projected that the employment rate would be between 4.7% and 4.9% in 2009. In fact, the unemployment rate rose to 9.9% in 2009.

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THE FED’S FAILURE TO PROJECT UNEMPLOYMENT

[infogram id=”cfc77db9-7010-4cde-9ab4-98d9e32f0f7f” prefix=”5Wn” format=”interactive” title=”2008 FED UNEMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS 12092021″] Key Points: In October 2007, as the Great Recession was about to begin, the FOMC projected that the employment rate would be between 4.8% and 4.9% in 2008. In fact, the unemployment rate rose to 7.8% in 2008.

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THE FED’S FAILURE TO PROJECT INFLATION

[infogram id=”fbe41dfc-b35d-40d5-a9f3-ed037f050ee7″ prefix=”tnP” format=”interactive” title=”FED INFLATION PROJECTIONS 12012021″] Key Points: For the last decade, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has set itself an inflation target of 2% — a goal it has extraordinary power to control. Yet, year after year, the FOMC has never successfully delivered on that target. In December of 2020, the […]

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