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Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% in March, after rising 0.2% in February.
- CPI increased 2.4% from a year ago, down from 2.8% in February.
- The index for shelter rose 0.2%, the index for food rose 0.4%, and the energy index fell 2.4% over the month.
- The index for food at home rose 0.5% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1% in February and is up 2.8% from the previous year.
- That was the smallest increase in the core measurement since March 2021.
- The energy index is down 3.3%, the food index is up 3.0%, and shelter is up 4.0% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
Key Points:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%.
- Consensus was a gain of 135,000 jobs.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down by 14,000, from +125,000 to +111,000, and the change for February was revised down by 34,000, from +151,000 to +117,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 48,000 lower than previously reported.
- Healthcare added 54,000 jobs in March, social assistance increased by 24,000, retail trade added 24,000 jobs, and transportation and warehousing rose by 23,000.
- Federal government employment fell by 4,000 in March.
- In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.09 to $36.00.
- The average workweek for all private employees was unchanged at 34.2 hours in March.
- The labor force participation rate changed little over the month at 62.5%.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor employment.
Key Points:
- U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.4%, or $87.8 billion, in February after falling 0.3% in January.
- Personal income increased by 0.8%, or $194.7 billion, in February, up from 0.7% in January.
- The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in February and is up 2.5% from a year prior.
- The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% in February and is up 2.8% from a year prior.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending, prices, and income.
Key Points:
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 4.1% in the year that ended in January, up from 4.0% in December.
- The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, up from a 4.5% increase in the previous month.
- The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.3%, up from a 5.2% annual increase in the previous month.
- New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.7% increase in January, followed by Chicago and Boston with annual increases of 7.5% and 6.6%, respectively.
- Tampa posted the lowest return again, falling 1.5%.
Key Points:
- Existing-home sales rose 4.2% in February from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million.
- Sales slipped 1.2% from one year ago.
- The median existing-home sales price rose 3.8% from February 2024 to $398,400, the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
- First-time buyers were responsible for 31% of sales in February, up from 28% in January and 26% in February 2024.
- “Home buyers are slowly entering the market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates have not changed much, but more inventory and choices are releasing pent-up housing demand.”
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor home sales.
Key Points:
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.2% in February, up from a downward revised 1.2% decrease in January.
- Consensus was a gain of 0.7%.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 0.3% over the month.
- Retail sales were 3.1% above February 2024 but CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.8% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the December 2024 through February 2025 period were up 3.8% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February, after rising 0.5% in January.
- CPI increased 2.8% from a year ago, down from 3.0% in January.
- The index for shelter rose 0.3%, the index for food rose 0.2%, and the energy index rose 0.2% over the month.
- The index for food at home was unchanged over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in February and is up 3.1% from the previous year.
- This marks the first decline in both Headline and Core CPI since July 2024.
- The energy index is down 0.2%, the food index is up 2.6%, and shelter is up 4.2% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
Key Points:
- The number of available jobs continues to outnumber Americans looking for work once again.
- Job openings rose to 7.74 million in January, above consensus, after December was revised down by 92,000 to 7.5 million.
- The number of job openings increased in real estate and rental and leasing (+46,000).
- The U.S. added 124,000 jobs in January and 151,000 in February, and there were 7 million people unemployed in February.
- The number of job openings for December was revised down by 92,000 to 7.5 million, the number of hires was revised down by 88,000 to 5.4 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 187,000 to 5.1 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 102,000 to 3.1 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised down by 102,000 to 1.7 million.
- In January, the number of hires changed little at 5.4 million. Hires decreased in mining and logging (-6,000).
- The number of total separations in January was little changed at 5.3 million.
- Within separations, quits (3.4 million) changed little and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) fell slightly.
- Quits were down by 242,000 over the year. Quits increased in construction (+53,000) and in mining and logging (+6,000).
- Layoffs and discharges decreased in mining and logging (-8,000).
- The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% and is 1.0% below its February 2020 level.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor unemployment and job openings.
Key Points:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February and the unemployment rate fell changed little at 4.1%.
- Consensus was a gain of 160,000 jobs.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000, from +307,000 to +323,000, and the change for January was revised down by 18,000, from +143,000 to +125,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 2,000 lower than previously reported.
- Healthcare added 52,000 jobs in February, financial activities added 21,000, and transportation and warehousing rose by 18,000.
- Federal government employment fell by 10,000.
- In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.10 to $35.93.
- The average workweek for all private employees was unchanged at 34.1 hours in February.
- The labor force participation rate changed little over the month at 62.4%.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor employment.
Key Points:
- U.S. consumer spending fell by 0.2%, or $30.7 billion, in January after rising 0.8% in December.
- Personal income increased by 0.9%, or $221.9 billion, in January, up from 0.4% in December.
- The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in January and is up 2.5% from a year prior.
- The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in January and is up 2.6% from a year prior.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending, prices, and income.
