THERIGHTFACTS.ORG

The Data that Drives Policy Lives Here.

Be ready with The Right Facts. Join the e-mail list.

Today's Facts

REAL WAGES FELL 1.3% UNDER BIDEN ADMIN, PRICES ROSE 21.5%

Key Points:

  • Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
  • Despite average hourly earnings trending up, wages are still down after adjusting for inflation.
  • The final Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading under Biden rose 0.5% in January from December and is up 3.0% in the last year.
  • Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $36.35 in January 2021 to $35.87 in January 2025, a 1.4% decline.
  • Overall, prices increased 21.5% since Biden and Harris took office in January 2021.

PRICES JUMPED 3.0% IN BIDEN’S FINAL INFLATION REPORT

Key Points:

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January, after rising 0.4% in December.
  • CPI increased 3.0% from a year ago, up from 2.9% in December, and the highest reading since June.
  • The index for shelter rose 0.4%, the index for food rose 0.4%, and the energy index rose 1.1% over the month.
  • The index for food at home rose 0.5% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2%.
  • The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% in January and is up 3.3% from the previous year.
  • The energy index is up 1.0%, the food index is up 2.5%, and shelter is up 4.4% from the previous year.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.

U.S. ECONOMY ADDED 143K JOBS IN JANUARY

Key Points:

  • Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.0%.
  • Consensus was a gain of 170,000 jobs.
  • The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 49,000, from 212,000 to 261,000, and the change for December was revised up by 51,000, from 256,000 to 307,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 100,000 higher than previously reported.
  • Healthcare added 44,000 jobs in January, retail trade added 34,000, government employment rose by 32,000, and social assistance added 22,000 jobs.
  • In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.17 to $35.87.
  • The average workweek for all private employees fell 0.1 hour 34.1 hours in January.
  • The labor force participation rate fell remained at 62.6% and is 0.8% below its February 2020 level.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor employment.

JOB OPENINGS DECLINED IN DECEMBER

Key Points:

  • The number of available jobs continues to outnumber Americans looking for work once again.
  • Job openings decreased to 7.6 million in December after November was revised up by 58,000 to 8.2 million.
  • There are 1.3 million fewer job openings than December 2023.
  • The number of job openings decreased in professional and business services (-225,000), health care and social assistance (-180,000), and finance and insurance (-136,000). Job openings increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+65,000).
  • The U.S. added 256,000 jobs in December and there were 6.9 million people unemployed.
  • The number of job openings for November was revised up by 58,000 to 8.2 million, the number of hires was revised up by 104,000 to 5.4 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 105,000 to 5.2 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised up by 65,000 to 3.1 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 35,000 to 1.8 million.
  • In December, the number of hires changed little at 5.5 million but was down by 325,000 over the year.
  • The number of total separations in December was little changed at 5.3 million.
  • Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
  • Quits were down by 242,000 over the year.
  • Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-42,000).
  • Layoffs and discharges increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+87,000), and in mining and logging (+6,000).
  • The labor force participation rate fell remained at 62.5% and is 0.9% below its February 2020 level.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor unemployment and job openings.

FED’S PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE ROSE IN DECEMBER

Key Points:

  • U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.7%, or $133.6 billion, in December, up from 0.4% in November.
  • Personal income increased by 0.4%, or $92.0 billion, in December, up from 0.3% in November.
  • The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in December and is up 2.6% from a year prior.
  • The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in December and is up 2.8% from a year prior.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending, prices, and income.

U.S. HOME PRICES CONTINUED GAINS IN NOVEMBER

Key Points:

  • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 3.8% in the year that ended in November.
  • The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.3%, up from a 4.2% increase in the previous month.
  • The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.9%, recording the same annual increase in the previous month.
  • New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.3% increase in November, followed by Chicago and Washington with annual increases of 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively.
  • Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 0.4%.

REAL WAGES FELL 1.5% UNDER BIDEN ADMIN

Key Points:

  • Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
  • Despite average hourly earnings trending up, wages are still down after adjusting for inflation.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in December from November and is up 2.9% in the last year.
  • Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $36.22 in January 2021 to $35.69 in December 2024, a 1.5% decline.
  • Overall, prices have increased 21.0% since Biden and Harris took office in January 2021.

U.S. RETAIL SALES DECELERATED IN DECEMBER

Key Points:

  • Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.4% in December, down from a revised 0.8% increase in November.
  • Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 0.4% over the month.
  • Retail sales were 3.9% above December 2023 but CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.9% in the last year.
  • Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
  • Total sales for the October 2024 through December 2024 period were up 3.7% from the same period a year ago.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.

INFLATION TICKS UP AGAIN, RISING TO 2.9% IN DECEMBER

Key Points:

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in December, after rising 0.3% in November.
  • CPI increased 2.9% from a year ago, up from 2.7% in November, and the highest reading since July.
  • The index for shelter rose 0.3%, the index for food rose 0.3%, and the energy index rose 2.6% over the month.
  • The index for food at home rose 0.3% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.3%.
  • The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in December and is up 3.2% from the previous year.
  • The energy index is down 0.5%, the food index is up 2.5%, and shelter is up 4.6% from the previous year.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.

U.S. ADDED 256K JOBS IN DECEMBER

Key Points:

  • Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 256,000 in December and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%.
  • Consensus was a gain of 160,000 jobs.
  • The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised up by 7,000, from +36,000 to +43,000, and the change for November was revised down by 15,000, from +227,000 to +212,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 8,000 lower than previously reported.
  • Healthcare added 46,000 jobs in December, retail trade added 43,000, leisure and hospitality rose by 43,000, and government employment rose by 33,000.
  • In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.10 to $35.69.
  • The average workweek for all private employees was 34.3 hours in December for the fifth month in a row.
  • The labor force participation rate fell remained at 62.5% and is 0.9% below its February 2020 level.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor employment.