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Key Points:
- Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
- Despite average hourly earnings trending up, wages are still down after adjusting for inflation.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in December from November and is up 2.9% in the last year.
- Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $36.22 in January 2021 to $35.69 in December 2024, a 1.5% decline.
- Overall, prices have increased 21.0% since Biden and Harris took office in January 2021.
Key Points:
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.4% in December, down from a revised 0.8% increase in November.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 0.4% over the month.
- Retail sales were 3.9% above December 2023 but CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.9% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the October 2024 through December 2024 period were up 3.7% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in December, after rising 0.3% in November.
- CPI increased 2.9% from a year ago, up from 2.7% in November, and the highest reading since July.
- The index for shelter rose 0.3%, the index for food rose 0.3%, and the energy index rose 2.6% over the month.
- The index for food at home rose 0.3% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.3%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in December and is up 3.2% from the previous year.
- The energy index is down 0.5%, the food index is up 2.5%, and shelter is up 4.6% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
Key Points:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 256,000 in December and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%.
- Consensus was a gain of 160,000 jobs.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised up by 7,000, from +36,000 to +43,000, and the change for November was revised down by 15,000, from +227,000 to +212,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 8,000 lower than previously reported.
- Healthcare added 46,000 jobs in December, retail trade added 43,000, leisure and hospitality rose by 43,000, and government employment rose by 33,000.
- In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.10 to $35.69.
- The average workweek for all private employees was 34.3 hours in December for the fifth month in a row.
- The labor force participation rate fell remained at 62.5% and is 0.9% below its February 2020 level.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor employment.
Key Points:
- The number of available jobs continues to outnumber Americans looking for work once again.
- Job openings rose to 8.1 million in November after October was revised up by 95,000 to 7.8 million.
- There are 833 thousand fewer job openings than November 2023.
- The number of job openings increased in professional and business services (+273,000), finance and insurance (+105,000), and private educational services (+38,000) but decreased in information (-89,000).
- The U.S. added just 227,000 jobs in November and there were 7 million people unemployed.
- The number of job openings for October was revised up by 95,000 to 7.8 million, the number of hires was revised up by 81,000 to 5.4 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 45,000 to 5.3 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 43,000 to 3.3 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 115,000 to 1.7 million.
- The number of hires was little changed at 5.3 million in November but was down by 300,000 over the year.
- The number of total separations in November was little changed at 5.1 million but was down by 287,000 over the year.
- Within separations, quits (3.1 million) decreased, but layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
- Quits were down by 451,000 over the year.
- Quits decreased in accommodation and food services (-85,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-22,000).
- Layoffs and discharges were up by 219,000 over the year.
- Layoffs and discharges increased in accommodation and food services (+102,000).
- he labor force participation rate fell slightly again to 62.5% and is 0.9% below its February 2020 level.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor unemployment and job openings.
Key Points:
- U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.4%, or $81.3 billion, in November, up from 0.3% in October.
- Personal income increased by 0.3%, or $71.1 billion, in November, down from 0.7% in October.
- The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% in November and is up 2.4% from a year prior.
- The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1% in November and is up 2.8% from a year prior.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending, prices, and income.
Key Points:
- Existing-home sales rose 4.8% in November from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million.
- Sales accelerated 6.1% from one year ago, the largest year-over-year gain since June 2021 (+23.0%).
- The median existing-home sales price rose 4.7% from November 2023 to $406,100, the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
- First-time buyers were responsible for 30% of sales in November, up from 27% in October but down from 31% in November 2023.
- “Home sales momentum is building,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “More buyers have entered the market as the economy continues to add jobs, housing inventory grows compared to a year ago, and consumers get used to a new normal of mortgage rates between 6% and 7%.”
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor home sales.
Key Points:
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.7% in November, up from 0.5% increase in October.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by just 0.2% over the month.
- Retail sales were 3.8% above November 2023 but CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.7% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the September 2024 through November 2024 period were up 2.9% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
Key Points:
- Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
- Despite average hourly earnings trending up, wages are still down after adjusting for inflation.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in November from October and is up 2.7% in the last year.
- Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $36.08 in January 2021 to $35.61 in November 2024, a 1.3% decline.
- Overall, prices have increased 20.8% since Biden and Harris took office in January 2021.
Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in November, after rising 0.2% in each of the previous 4 months.
- CPI increased 2.7% from a year ago, up from 2.6% in October, and in line with consensus.
- The index for shelter rose 0.3%, the index for food rose 0.4%, and the energy index rose 0.2% over the month.
- The index for food at home rose 0.5% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.3%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in November and is up 3.3% from the previous year.
- The energy index is down 4.9%, the food index is up 3.2%, food index is up 2.4%, and shelter is up 4.7% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
