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U.S. ADDS 263K JOBS IN NOVEMBER

Key Points:

  • Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 263,000 in November as the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%.
  • Consensus among economists was a gain of 200,000 jobs.
  • In November, the unemployed population held steady at 6 million but there were 10.3 million job openings in October.
  • Leisure and hospitality added 88,000 jobs in November, employment in health care rose by 45,000, Government added 42,000 jobs, construction added 20,000, and manufacturing added 14,000 jobs.
  • In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.18 to $32.82.
  • The average workweek for all private employees fell by 0.1 hours to 34.4.
  • The labor force participation rate decreased slightly over the month to 62.1% and is 1.3% below its February 2020 level.

CONSUMER SPENDING SPIKED IN OCTOBER AS INFLATION EASED

Key Points:

  • U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.8%, or $147.9 Billion, in October, up from 0.6% in September.
  • Personal income increased by 0.7%, or $155.3 Billion, in October, up from 0.4% in September.
  • The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in October and is up 6.0% from a year prior.
  • The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in October and is up 5.0% from the previous year.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending and income.

JOB OPENINGS FELL IN OCTOBER

Key Points:

  • The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work.
  • The tight labor market has pushed total job openings to nearly double the available workers this year, but hiring has slowed amid a broader economic slowdown.
  • Job openings fell by 353,000 to 10.3 million in October after rising in September, and remains far below the record high 11.9 million in March.
  • The number of job openings decreased in state and local government (-101,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (+-95,000), and federal government (-61,000).
  • The number of job openings increased in other services (+76,000) and in finance and insurance (+70,000).
  • The U.S. added 261,000 jobs in October but there were 6 million people unemployed.
  • In October, the number of hires edged down to 6.0 million and the number of separations changed little at 5.7 million.
  • Within separations, the number of quits were little changed at 4.0 million – still near the record high of 4.4 million – and layoffs and discharges rose to 1.4 million.
  • The labor force participation rate decreased over the month to 62.2% in October and is 1.2% below its February 2020 level.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor unemployment and job openings.

RETAIL SALES ROSE 1.3% IN OCTOBER AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON

Key Points:

  • Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 1.3% in October from September ahead of the holiday season while inflation slowed but prices remain high.
  • Consensus among economists was a 1.0% gain.
  • October’s 1.3% gain comes after no gains in September.
  • Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 1.3% over the month.
  • Retail sales are up 8.9% from a year prior while consumer prices advanced 7.7% from a year earlier.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.

SHELTER, FOOD, AND GASOLINE LED OCTOBER’S INFLATION

Key Points:

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October from September and is up 7.7% in the last year.
  • The core CPI which excludes food and energy rose to 6.3% in October, down from 6.6% in September.
  • The overall food index rose 10.9%, food at home rose 12.4%, and food away from home rose 8.6% over the past 12 months.
  • The largest increase in food was for cereals and bakery products, which increased 15.9%, and dairy which increased 15.5%.
  • The index for food away from home rose 8.6%, full service meals rose 9.0%, and limited service meals rose 7.1% over the last 12 months.
  • The energy index rose 17.6% over the past 12 months as all the major energy component indexes increased.
  • Fuel oil increased 68.5%, gasoline increased 17.5%, electricity increased 14.1%, and natural gas rose 20% over the last 12 months.
  • The index for airline fare rose 42.9%, new vehicles increased by 8.4%, rent increased by 7.5%, shelter rose by 6.9%, tobacco and smoking products increased by 6.6%, and apparel increased by 4.1%.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor inflation.

REAL WAGES HAVE FALLEN 2.8% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points:

  • Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October from September and is up 7.7% in the last year.
  • Despite trending up between January 2017 and January 2021, real wages have trended down since January 2021.
  • Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $33.53 in October 2021 to $32.58 in October 2022, a 2.8% decrease.

INFLATION EASED IN OCTOBER, PRICES UP 7.7% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points:

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October, the same reading as September.
  • CPI increased 7.7% from a year ago, down from 8.2% in September.
  • Consensus among economists was an 8.2% increase.
  • The rate of price increases remained above 5% for the seventeenth straight month.
  • Shelter, food, and gasoline indexes increased over the month.
  • The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in October and is up 6.3% from the previous year – down from the 4-decade high in September.
  • The energy index is up 17.6% and the food index is up 10.9% from the previous year.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.

U.S. ADDS 261K JOBS IN OCTOBER, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 3.7%

Key Points:

  • Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 261,000 in October as the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%.
  • Consensus among economists was a gain of 200,000 jobs.
  • In October, the unemployed population rose to 6 million but there were 10.7 million job openings in September.
  • Employment in health care rose by 53,000 in October, professional and technical services added 43,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality added 35,000 jobs, and manufacturing added 32,000 jobs.
  • In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.12 to $32.58.
  • The average workweek for all private employees was 34.5 hours for the fifth month in a row.
  • The labor force participation rate decreased again over the month to 62.2% and is 1.2% below its February 2020 level.

JOB OPENINGS ROSE, HIRING FELL IN SEPTEMBER

Key Points:

  • The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work.
  • The tight labor market has pushed total job openings to nearly double the available workers this year, but hiring has slowed amid a broader economic slowdown.
  • Job openings rose by 437,000 to 10.7 million in September, partially offsetting the sharp decline in August, but far below the record high 11.9 million in March.
  • The number of job openings increased in accommodation and food services (+215,000), health care and social assistance (+115,000), and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+111,000).
  • The number of job openings decreased in wholesale trade (-104,000) and in finance and insurance (-83,000).
  • The U.S. added 263,000 jobs in September but there were 5.75 million people unemployed.
  • In September, the number of hires edged down to 6.1 million and the number of separations decreased to 5.7 million.
  • Within separations, the number of quits were little changed at 4.1 million – still near the record high of 4.4 million – and layoffs and discharges edged down to 1.3 million.
  • The labor force participation rate decreased over the month to 62.3% in September and is 1.1% below its February 2020 level.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor unemployment and job openings.

U.S. CONSUMERS INCREASED SPENDING IN SEPTEMBER, CORE PRICES UP 5.1%

Key Points:

  • U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.6%, or $113.0 Billion, in September, the same reading as August.
  • Personal income increased by 0.4%, or $78.9 Billion, in September, the same reading as July and August.
  • The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in September and is up 6.2% from a year prior.
  • The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.5% in September and is up 5.1% from the previous year.
  • The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending and income.