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Key Points:
- Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
- Despite average hourly earnings trending up, wages are still down after adjusting for inflation.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in August from July and is up 2.5% in the last year.
- Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $35.81 in January 2021 to $35.21 in August 2024, a 1.7% decline.
- Overall, prices have increased 19.7% since Biden and Harris took office in January 2021.
Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in August, the same reading as July.
- CPI increased 2.9% from a year ago, down from 2.9% in July and consensus of 2.6%.
- The index for shelter rose 0.5%, the index for food rose 0.1%, and the energy index fell by 0.8%.
- The index for food at home was unchanged over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.3%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in August and is up 3.2% from the previous year.
- The energy index is down 4.0%, the food index is up 2.1%, and shelter is up 5.2% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
Key Points:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 142,000 in August and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%.
- Jobs gains were below consensus among economists of 160,000 jobs gained and the average monthly gain of 202,000 over the prior 12 months.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 61,000, from +179,000 to +118,000, and the change for July was revised down by 25,000, from +114,000 to +89,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 86,000 lower than previously reported.
- Construction added 34,000 jobs in August and health care added 31,000 jobs.
- Employment in manufacturing fell by 24,000 jobs in August.
- In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.14 to $35.21.
- The average workweek for all private employees rose 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours in August.
- The labor force participation rate changed little at 62.7% and is 0.7% below its February 2020 level.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor employment.
Key Points:
- The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work.
- Job openings were unchanged at 7.67 million in July after June was revised down to 7.9 million.
- There are 1.1 million fewer job openings than July 2023.
- The number of job openings decreased in health care and social assistance (-187,000); state and local government, excluding education (-101,000); and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-88,000). Job openings increased in professional and business services (+178,000) and in federal government (+28,000).
- The U.S. added 114,000 jobs in July but there were 7.2 million people unemployed.
- The number of job openings for June was revised down by 274,000 to 7.9 million, the number of hires was revised down by 93,000 to 5.2 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 11,000 to 5.1 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 68,000 to 3.2 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 62,000 to 1.6 million.
- The number of hires was little changed at 5.5 million in July. Hires increased in accommodation and food services (+156,000) but decreased in federal government (-8,000).
- The number of total separations in July increased by 336,000 to 5.4 million.
- Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
- In July, the number of quits was essentially unchanged at 3.3 million but was down by 338,000 over the year.
- In July, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.8 million. Layoffs and discharges increased in accommodation and food services (+75,000) and in finance and insurance (+21,000).
- The labor force participation rate changed little at 62.7% and is 0.7% below its February 2020 level.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor unemployment and job openings.
Key Points:
- U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.5%, or $103.8 billion, in July, up from 0.3% in June.
- Personal income increased by 0.3%, or $75.1 billion, in July, after rising 0.2% in June.
- The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in July and is up 2.5% from a year prior.
- The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in July and is up 2.6% from a year prior.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending, prices, and income.
Key Points:
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 5.4% in the year that ended in June.
- The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.5%, down from a 6.9% increase in the previous month.
- The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.4%, down from a 7.8% increase in the previous month.
- New York reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 9.0% increase in June, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with annual increases of 8.7% and 8.5%, respectively.
- Portland once again held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching a 0.8% annual increase in June.
- “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices continue to show above-trend real price performance when accounting for inflation,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “Home prices and inflation continue to factor into the political agenda coming into the election season. While both housing and inflation have slowed, the gap between the two is larger than historical norms, with our National Index averaging 2.8% more than the Consumer Price Index.”
Key Points:
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 1.0% in July, above consensus of a 0.3% increase.
- June was revised down from 0.0% to -0.2%.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 0.4% over the month.
- Retail sales were 2.7% above July 2023 but CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.9% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the May 2024 through July 2024 period were up 2.4% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
Key Points:
- Unemployment rates rose in 13 states, fell in one, and remained stable in 36 states and the District of Columbia in July.
- The U.S. unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 4.3% in July and is 0.8% higher than last year.
- In total, 28 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 4.3%, 4 states and the District had higher rates, and 18 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.
- Twenty-eight states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier, 2 states had decreases, and 20 states had little change.
- South Dakota had the lowest jobless rate in June, 2.0%, closely followed by Vermont at 2.1% and North Dakota at 2.2%.
- The rate in Mississippi, 2.7%, set a new series low.
- The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.5%, followed by Nevada at 5.4% and California at 5.2%.
- In July, 13 states had unemployment rate increases, the largest of which were in Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, and South Carolina (+0.3% each).
- Connecticut had the only rate decrease (-0.3%).
Key Points:
- Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
- Despite average hourly earnings trending up, wages are still down after adjusting for inflation.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July from June and is up 2.9% in the last year.
- Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $35.75 in January 2021 to $35.07 in July 2024, a 1.9% decline.
- Overall, prices have increased 19.4% since Biden took office in January 2021.
Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July after falling 0.1% in June.
- CPI increased 2.9% from a year ago, down from 3.0% in June and consensus of 3.0%.
- This is the first time CPI has come in below 3% since March 2021.
- The index for shelter rose 0.4%, the index for food rose 0.2%, and the energy index was unchanged over the month.
- The index for food at home rose 0.1% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in July and is up 3.2% from the previous year.
- The energy index is up 1.1%, the food index is up 2.2%, and shelter is up 5.1% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
