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Key Points:
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.1% in April, down from an upward revised 1.7% decrease in March.
- Consensus among economists was no change over the month.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 0.1% over the month.
- Retail sales were 5.2% above April 2024 while CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.3% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the February 2025 through April 2025 period were up 4.8% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in April, after falling 0.1% in March.
- CPI increased 2.3% from a year ago, down from 2.4% in March.
- 2.3% is the lowest reading since February 2021.
- The index for shelter rose 0.3%, the index for food fell 0.1%, and the energy index rose 0.7% over the month.
- The index for food at home fell 0.4% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in April and is up 2.8% from the previous year.
- The energy index is down 3.7%, the food index is up 2.8%, and shelter is up 4.0% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
Key Points:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 177,000 in April and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.
- Consensus was a gain of 130,000 jobs.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 15,000, from +117,000 to +102,000, and the change for March was revised down by 43,000, from +228,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 58,000 lower than previously reported.
- Healthcare added 51,000 jobs in April, transportation and warehousing increased by 29,000, financial activities employment rose by 14,000, and social assistance added 8,000 jobs.
- Federal government employment fell by 9,000 in April.
- In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.06 to $36.06.
- The average workweek for all private employees was unchanged at 34.3 hours in April.
- The labor force participation rate changed little over the month at 62.6%.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor employment.
Key Points:
- U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.7%, or $134.5 billion, in March after rising 0.4% in February.
- Personal income increased by 0.5%, or $116.8 billion, in March, after rising 0.7% in February.
- The overall personal consumption expenditures price index was unchanged in March and is up 2.3% from a year prior.
- The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged in March and is up 2.6% from a year prior.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending, prices, and income.
Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% in March, after rising 0.2% in February.
- CPI increased 2.4% from a year ago, down from 2.8% in February.
- The index for shelter rose 0.2%, the index for food rose 0.4%, and the energy index fell 2.4% over the month.
- The index for food at home rose 0.5% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1% in February and is up 2.8% from the previous year.
- That was the smallest increase in the core measurement since March 2021.
- The energy index is down 3.3%, the food index is up 3.0%, and shelter is up 4.0% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
Key Points:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%.
- Consensus was a gain of 135,000 jobs.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down by 14,000, from +125,000 to +111,000, and the change for February was revised down by 34,000, from +151,000 to +117,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 48,000 lower than previously reported.
- Healthcare added 54,000 jobs in March, social assistance increased by 24,000, retail trade added 24,000 jobs, and transportation and warehousing rose by 23,000.
- Federal government employment fell by 4,000 in March.
- In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.09 to $36.00.
- The average workweek for all private employees was unchanged at 34.2 hours in March.
- The labor force participation rate changed little over the month at 62.5%.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor employment.
Key Points:
- U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.4%, or $87.8 billion, in February after falling 0.3% in January.
- Personal income increased by 0.8%, or $194.7 billion, in February, up from 0.7% in January.
- The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in February and is up 2.5% from a year prior.
- The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% in February and is up 2.8% from a year prior.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending, prices, and income.
Key Points:
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 4.1% in the year that ended in January, up from 4.0% in December.
- The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, up from a 4.5% increase in the previous month.
- The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.3%, up from a 5.2% annual increase in the previous month.
- New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.7% increase in January, followed by Chicago and Boston with annual increases of 7.5% and 6.6%, respectively.
- Tampa posted the lowest return again, falling 1.5%.
Key Points:
- Existing-home sales rose 4.2% in February from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million.
- Sales slipped 1.2% from one year ago.
- The median existing-home sales price rose 3.8% from February 2024 to $398,400, the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
- First-time buyers were responsible for 31% of sales in February, up from 28% in January and 26% in February 2024.
- “Home buyers are slowly entering the market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates have not changed much, but more inventory and choices are releasing pent-up housing demand.”
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor home sales.
Key Points:
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.2% in February, up from a downward revised 1.2% decrease in January.
- Consensus was a gain of 0.7%.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 0.3% over the month.
- Retail sales were 3.1% above February 2024 but CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.8% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the December 2024 through February 2025 period were up 3.8% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
