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Key Points:
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.4% in September, up from 0.1% increase in August.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by just 0.5% over the month.
- Retail sales were 1.7% above September 2023 but CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.4% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the July 2024 through September 2024 period were up 2.3% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
Key Points:
- Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
- Despite average hourly earnings trending up, wages are still down after adjusting for inflation.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in September from August and is up 2.4% in the last year.
- Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $35.88 in January 2021 to $35.36 in September 2024, a 1.4% decline.
- Overall, prices have increased 20.1% since Biden and Harris took office in January 2021.
Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in September, the same reading as August.
- CPI increased 2.4% from a year ago, down from 2.5% in August, but above consensus of 2.3%.
- The index for shelter rose 0.3%, the index for food rose 0.4%, and the energy index fell by 1.9%.
- The index for food at home rose 0.4% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.3%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in September and is up 3.3% from the previous year.
- This was the first time core CPI rose year over year since March 2023.
- The energy index is down 6.8%, the food index is up 2.3%, and shelter is up 4.9% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
Key Points:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 254,000 in September and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%.
- Both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed people changed little in September. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17,000, from +142,000 to +159,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 72,000 higher than previously reported.
- Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 69,000 in September, health care added 45,000 jobs, government rose by 31,000, and construction added 25,000 jobs.
- In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.13 to $35.36.
- The average workweek for all private employees fell 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours in September.
- The labor force participation rate changed little at 62.7% for the third consecutive month and is 0.7% below its February 2020 level.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor employment.
Key Points:
- The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work.
- Job openings rose 8.0 million in August after July was revised up by 38,000 to 7.7 million.
- There are 1.3 million fewer job openings than August 2023.
- The number of job openings increased in construction (+138,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (+78,000). Job openings decreased in other services (-93,000).
- The U.S. added 142,000 jobs in August but there were 7.1 million people unemployed.
- The number of job openings for July was revised up by 38,000 to 7.7 million, the number of hires was revised down by 105,000 to 5.4 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 106,000 to 5.3 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 34,000 to 3.2 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised down by 49,000 to 1.7 million.
- The number of hires fell to 5.3 million in August.
- The number of total separations in August fell to 5.0 million. Total separations increased in professional and business services (+149,000) but decreased in accommodation and food services (-111,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (-25,000).
- Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) both fell.
- Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-45,000); arts, entertainment, and recreation (-18,000); and private educational services (-11,000).
- Layoffs and discharges decreased in health care and social assistance (-52,000).
- The labor force participation rate changed little at 62.7% and is 0.7% below its February 2020 level.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor unemployment and job openings.
Key Points:
- U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.2%, or $47.2 billion, in August, down from 0.5% in July.
- Personal income increased by 0.2%, or $50.5 billion, in July, after rising 0.3% in July.
- The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% in August and is up 2.2% from a year prior.
- The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1% in August and is up 2.7% from a year prior.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending, prices, and income.
Key Points:
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 5.0% in the year that ended in July.
- The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.9, down from a 6.5% increase in the previous month.
- The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 76.8%, down from a 7.4% increase in the previous month.
- New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in July, followed by Las Vegas and Los Angeles with annual increases of 8.2% and 7.2%, respectively.
- Portland held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching the same 0.8% annual increase in July as last month.
- “Accounting for seasonality of home purchases, we have witnessed 14 consecutive record highs in our National Index,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets.
Key Points:
- Unemployment rates rose in 6 states and the District of Columbia, fell in one, and remained stable in 43 states in August.
- The U.S. unemployment rate changed little at 4.2% in August and is 0.4% higher than August 2023.
- In total, 27 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 4.2%, 4 states and the District had higher rates, and 19 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.
- Twenty-five states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier, four states had decreases, and twenty-one states had little change.
- South Dakota had the lowest jobless rate in August at 2.0%, closely followed by Vermont at 2.2% and North Dakota at 2.3%.
- The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.7%, followed by Nevada at 5.5%.
- In August, six states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate increases, the largest of which was in South Carolina (+0.4%).
- Connecticut had the only rate decrease (-0.2%).
Key Points:
- Existing-home sales fell 2.5% in August from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.86 million.
- Existing-home sales fell 4.2% from one year ago.
- At $416,700, the median existing-home sales price for August was the 14th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
- First-time buyers were responsible for 26% of sales in August, matching the all-time low last seen in November 2021.
- “Home sales were disappointing again in August, but the recent development of lower mortgage rates coupled with increasing inventory is a powerful combination that will provide the environment for sales to move higher in future months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor home sales.
Key Points:
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.1% in August, far below July’s 1.1% increase.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by just 0.1% over the month.
- Retail sales were 2.1% above August 2023 but CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.5% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the June 2024 through August 2024 period were up 2.3% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
