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- Existing-home sales fell 4.1% in October from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million.
- Existing-home sales fell 14.6% from one year ago.
- The median existing-home sales price for October rose 3.4% from one year ago to $391,800.
- Sales in October fell to the lowest rate in 13 years, dating back to August 2010.
- First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in October, up from 27% in September and identical to October 2022.
- “Prospective home buyers experienced another difficult month due to the persistent lack of housing inventory and the highest mortgage rates in a generation,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor home sales.
- Unemployment rates rose in 26 states, and remained stable in 24 states and the District of Columbia in October.
- The U.S. unemployment rate rose rose to 3.9% in October.
- In total, 26 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 3.9 percent, 4 states and the District of Columbia had higher rates, and 20 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.
- Twelve states and the District of Columbia had rate increases from October 2022, the largest of which was in New Jersey (+1.3%).
- Maryland had the lowest jobless rate in October at 1.7%, followed by North Dakota at 1.9%, and South Dakota and Vermont at 2.0%.
- Nevada has the highest unemployment rate again at 5.4%, followed by the District at 5.0%, and California at 4.8%.
- In October, 26 states had over-the-month unemployment rate increases, all of which were 0.2% or 0.1% increases.
- Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
- Despite average hourly earnings trending up, wages are still down after adjusting for inflation.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in October from September and is up 3.2% in the last year.
- Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $35.04 in January 2021 to $34.00 in October 2023, a 3.0% decline.
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, fell 0.1% in October from September.
- This was the first monthly decline since March.
- The August to September percent change was revised up to 0.9% from 0.7%.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 0.1% over the month.
- Retail sales were 2.5% above October 2022, below CPI data released earlier this month showing prices have increased 3.2% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the August 2023 through October 2023 period were up 3.1% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in October after rising 0.4% in September.
- CPI increased 3.2% from a year ago, down from 3.7% in September.
- The index for shelter continued to rise in October, offsetting a decline in the gasoline index and resulting in the overall index being unchanged over the month.
- The index for shelter and the index for food both rose 0.3% over the month.
- The index for food at home increased 0.3% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in October and is up 4.0% from the previous year.
- The energy index is down 4.5%, the food index is up 3.3%, and shelter is up 6.7% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
- Revisions to monthly job gains have erased 337K job gains in the first nine months of the year.
- Total jobs added from January to September were revised down from 2.6M to 2.2M, a 13.1% decline.
- June had the highest downward revision from 209K to just 105K, a nearly 50% decline.
- October’s job report alone reported -101K less jobs than originally reported in August and September.
- Before revisions, nonfarm payroll employment rose by a meager 150,000 in October and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor jobs revisions.
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 150,000 in October and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.
- Consensus among economists was a gain of 180,000 jobs.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000.
- With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported.
- Health care added 58,000 jobs in October, government increased by 51,000, construction employment increased by 23,000, and social assistance added 19,000 jobs.
- Employment in manufacturing decreased by 35,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 33,000 in motor vehicles and parts that was largely due to strike activity.
- In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.07 to $34.00.
- The average workweek for all private employees edged down by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours in October.
- The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.7% and is 0.7% below its February 2020 level.
- In October, the unemployed population rose to 6.5 million but there were 9.6 million job openings in September.
- The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work.
- Job openings were little changed at 9.6 million in September, above consensus of 9.25 million.
- Over the month, job openings increased in accommodation and food services (+141,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+39,000).
- Job openings decreased in other services (-124,000), federal government (-43,000), and information (-41,000).
- The U.S. added 336,000 jobs in September and there were 6.4 million people unemployed.
- In September, the number of hires changed little at 5.9 million, and the rate was 3.7% for the third month in a row. The number of hires changed little in all industries.
- The number and rate of total separations in September changed little at 5.5 million.
- Within separations, quits (3.7 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
- the number of total separations decreased in state and local government education (-42,000) and in nondurable goods manufacturing (-37,000) but increased in federal government (+8,000).
- The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.8% in September and is 0.5% below its February 2020 level.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor unemployment and job openings.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 2.6% in the year that ended in August after rising 1.0% in July.
- The August level was the highest since the index began in 1987.
- The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, a slight increase of 0.2% in the previous month.
- The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 3.0%, up from a 1.0% increase in the previous month.
- Chicago led the way for the fourth consecutive month, reporting the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities in August.
- Twelve of the 20 cities reported higher prices in the year ending August 2023 versus the year ending July 2023.
- Nineteen of the 20 cities show a positive trend in year-over-year price acceleration compared to the prior month.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor home prices.
- U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.7%, or $138.7 billion, in September, after rising 0.4% in August.
- Personal income increased by 0.3%, or $77.8 billion, in September, after rising 0.4% in August.
- The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.4% in September and is up 3.4% from a year prior.
- The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in September and is up 3.7% from a year prior.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending, prices, and income.