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Key Points:
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.4% in October, down from 0.8% increase in September.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by just 0.1% over the month.
- Retail sales were 2.8% above October 2023 but CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.6% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the August 2024 through October 2024 period were up 2.3% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
Key Points:
- Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
- Despite average hourly earnings trending up, wages are still down after adjusting for inflation.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October from September and is up 2.6% in the last year.
- Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $35.97 in January 2021 to $35.46 in October 2024, a 1.4% decline.
- Overall, prices have increased 20.4% since Biden and Harris took office in January 2021.
Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October, the same reading as the three previous months.
- CPI increased 2.6% from a year ago, up from 2.4% in September, and in line with consensus.
- The index for shelter rose 0.4%, the index for food rose 0.2%, and the energy index was unchanged over the month.
- The index for food at home rose 0.1% over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2%.
- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in October and is up 3.3% from the previous year.
- The energy index is down 4.9%, the food index is up 2.1%, and shelter is up 4.9% from the previous year.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor CPI.
Key Points:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 12,000 in October and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.
- Consensus was a gain of 113,000 jobs.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, and the change for September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower than previously reported.
- Healthcare added 52,000 jobs in October, government rose by 40,000, and manufacturing employment fell by 46,000.
- In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.13 to $35.46.
- The average workweek for all private employees remained at 34.3 hours in October.
- The labor force participation rate fell slightly to 62.6% and is 0.8% below its February 2020 level.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor employment.
Key Points:
- U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.5%, or $105.8 billion, in September, up from 0.3% in August.
- Personal income increased by 0.3%, or $71.6 billion, in September, after rising 0.2% in August.
- The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in September and is up 2.1% from a year prior.
- The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in September and is up 2.7% from a year prior.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor spending, prices, and income.
Key Points:
- The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work, but the gap is narrowing.
- Job openings fell to 7.4 million in September after August was revised down by 179,000 to 7.9 million.
- There are 1.9 million fewer job openings than September 2023.
- The number of job openings decreased in health care and social assistance (-178,000); state and local government, excluding education (-79,000); and federal government (-28,000) but increased in finance and insurance (+85,000).
- The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September but there were 6.8 million people unemployed.
- The number of job openings for August was revised down by 179,000 to 7.9 million, the number of hires was revised up by 118,000 to 5.4 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 171,000 to 5.2 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised up by 94,000 to 3.2 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 60,000 to 1.7 million.
- The number of hires was little changed at 5.6 million in September.
- The number of total separations in September rose to 5.2 million.
- Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) both were virtually unchanged.
- Quits decreased in professional and business services (-94,000) but increased in state and local government, excluding education (+22,000) and in real estate and rental and leasing (+18,000).
- Layoffs and discharges increased in durable goods manufacturing (+46,000) but decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-20,000).
- The labor force participation rate was unchanged for the third consecutive month at 62.7% and is 0.7% below its February 2020 level.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor unemployment and job openings.
Key Points:
- Existing-home sales fell 1.0% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million.
- Existing-home sales fell 3.5% from one year ago.
- At $404,500, the median existing-home sales price for September was the 15th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
- First-time buyers were responsible for 26% of sales in September, matching the all-time low from August 2024 and November 2021.
- Home sales have been essentially stuck at around a four-million-unit pace for the past 12 months, but factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor home sales.
Key Points:
- Unemployment rates rose in 5 states, fell in one, and remained stable in 44 states and the District of Columbia in September.
- The U.S. unemployment rate changed little at 4.1% in September and is 0.3% higher than September 2023.
- In total, 23 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 4.1%, 4 states and the District had higher rates, and 23 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.
- Twenty-two states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier, six states had decreases, and twenty-two states had little change.
- South Dakota had the lowest jobless rate in September at 2.0%, closely followed by Vermont at 2.2% and North Dakota at 2.3%.
- The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.7%, followed by Nevada at 5.6%.
- In September, five states had unemployment rate increases, the largest of which was in South Carolina and Utah (+0.2%).
- Connecticut had the only rate decrease (-0.2%).
Key Points:
- Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.4% in September, up from 0.1% increase in August.
- Excluding autos, retail sales rose by just 0.5% over the month.
- Retail sales were 1.7% above September 2023 but CPI data released earlier this month showed prices have increased 2.4% in the last year.
- Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and reflect price differences as well as purchase amounts.
- Total sales for the July 2024 through September 2024 period were up 2.3% from the same period a year ago.
- The Right Facts will continue to monitor retail sales.
Key Points:
- Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work.
- Despite average hourly earnings trending up, wages are still down after adjusting for inflation.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in September from August and is up 2.4% in the last year.
- Real average hourly earnings have fallen from $35.88 in January 2021 to $35.36 in September 2024, a 1.4% decline.
- Overall, prices have increased 20.1% since Biden and Harris took office in January 2021.
