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The Data that Drives Policy Lives Here.

JOB OPENINGS FALL TO TWO-YEAR LOW

Key Points: The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work. The tight labor market has pushed total job openings to nearly double the available workers, but hiring has slowed amid a broader economic slowdown. Job openings fell by 384,000 to 9.6 million in March, the lowest since May […]

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INFLATION GAUGE SHOWS CORE PRICES REMAIN ELEVATED

Key Points: U.S. consumer spending rose by less than 0.1%, or $8.2 Billion, in March, after rising 0.1% in February. Personal income increased by 0.3%, or $67.9 Billion, in March, the same rate as February. The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% in March and is up 4.2% from a year prior. The […]

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MOODY’S CRITIQUE OF SPEAKER MCCARTHY’S BUDGET: INCORRECT AND ABSURD

Economist Corner A recent report by Moody’s Analytics that the Budget now before the House would cost 780,000 jobs. These claims are flagrantly wrong and misleading. The economics behind them are highly dubious. For starters, the analysis reflects speculation about what Republicans will do, rather than the legislation put forward by Speaker McCarthy. “While not stipulated in […]

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SEVEN STATES SET RECORD LOW UNEMPLOYMENT IN MARCH

Key Points: Unemployment rates fell in 18 states, rose in the District of Columbia, and remained stable in 32 states in March. The U.S. unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5% in March. Nine states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rates above the U.S. average in March. South Dakota had the lowest unemployment […]

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HOME PRICES POST LARGEST DECLINE IN 11 YEARS

Key Points: Existing-home sales fell 2.4% in March from February and 22.0% from one year ago. The median existing-home sales price decreased 0.9% from one year ago to $375,700, the largest decline in 11 years. Existing-home sales in the Northeast were unchanged from February, but down 21.2% from March 2022. The median price in the […]

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EXISTING HOME SALES SLID 2.4% IN MARCH

Key Points: Existing-home sales fell 2.4% in March from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. Consensus among economists was a 1.5% increase. Existing-home sales fell 22.0% from one year ago. The median existing-home sales price decreased 0.9% from one year ago to $375,700. First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales […]

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BUILDER SENTIMENT TRENDING UP, REMAINS UNDERWATER

Key Points U.S. builders remained cautiously optimistic in April as limited resale inventory helped to increase demand in the new home market even as the industry continues to grapple with building material issues. The NAHB Housing Market index rose one point to a reading of 45 this month from 44 in March. The HMI index […]

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RETAIL SALES FALL 1% OVER THE MONTH, MISSING EXPECTATIONS

Key Points: Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, fell 1.0% in March from February after last month was revised to a 0.2% decline. Consensus among economists was a 0.4% decline. Excluding autos, retail sales also fell by 0.8% over the month. Total sales for the January 2023 through March 2023 […]

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INFLATION EASED IN MARCH, CORE PRICES REMAIN ELEVATED

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in March after rising 0.4% in February. CPI increased 5.0% from a year ago, down from 6.0% in February, and the lowest reading since May 2021. The rate of price increases remained above 5% for the twenty-second straight month. The index for energy decreased 3.5% over […]

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U.S. ADDED 236,000 JOBS IN MARCH, BELOW EXPECTATIONS

Key Points: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March as the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5%. Consensus among economists was a gain of 240,000 jobs. In March, the unemployed population dipped to 5.8 million but job openings fell to 9.9 million in February. Leisure and hospitality added 72,000 jobs in March, government […]

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JOB OPENINGS FELL UNEXPECTEDLY IN FEBRUARY

Key Points: The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work. The tight labor market has pushed total job openings to nearly double the available workers this year, but hiring has slowed amid a broader economic slowdown. Job openings fell by 632,000 to 9.9 million in February after January […]

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HOME PRICES TREND DOWN FOR SEVENTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH

Key Points: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 3.8% in the year that ended in January, down from 5.6% in the previous month. This is the seventh straight month home prices have fallen. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.5% year-over-year […]

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REAL WAGES HAVE FALLEN 3.7% UNDER BIDEN

Key Points: Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in February from January and is up 6.0% in the last year. Despite trending up between January 2017 and January 2021, real […]

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HOME PRICES FELL IN FEBRUARY FOR FIRST TIME IN 11 YEARS

Key Points: Existing-home sales rose 14.5% in February from March, breaking the twelve-month streak of declining sales. Consensus among economists was a 0.7% decline. Existing-home sales fell 22.6% from one year ago. The median existing-home sales price decreased 0.2% from one year ago to $363,000, the first decline in more than a decade and breaking […]

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FOOD LEADS THE PRICE INCREASES IN THE LAST YEAR

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in February from January and is up 6.0% in the last year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.5% in February and is up 5.5% from the previous year. The overall food index rose 9.5%, food at home rose 10.2%, and food away […]

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CONSUMERS PULLED BACK SPENDING IN FEBRUARY

Key Points: Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, fell 0.4% in February from January after rising 3.2% last month. Consensus among economists was a 0.3% decline. February’s decrease comes after the largest monthly gain in nearly two years in January, following two consecutive months of declines. Excluding autos, retail sales […]

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CONSUMER PRICES INCREASED 6.0% FROM YEAR AGO

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in February after rising 0.5% in January. CPI increased 6.0% from a year ago, down from 6.4% in January, and the lowest reading since September 2021. The rate of price increases remained above 5% for the twenty-first straight month. The index for energy decreased 0.6% over […]

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U.S. ADDS 311,000 JOBS IN FEBRUARY

Key Points: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February as the unemployment rate rose to 3.6%. Consensus among economists was a gain of 205,000 jobs. In February, the unemployed population rose to 5.9 million but there were 10.8 million job openings in January. Leisure and hospitality added 105,000 jobs in February, employment in […]

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U.S. JOB OPENINGS FALL, LAYOFFS RISE IN JANUARY

Key Points: The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work. The tight labor market has pushed total job openings to nearly double the available workers this year, but hiring has slowed amid a broader economic slowdown. Job openings fell by 410,000 to 10.8 million in January after rising […]

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HIGHER STATE-LEVEL TAX RATES PREDICT POPULATION LOSSES

Key Points: In 2022, higher top tax rates on personal income predicted population losses. The map shows the top tax rate and the rate of population change for states with at least 5,000 population change. Arrows to the left indicate a population loss while arrows to the right indicate a population gain. In 2022, eight […]

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CRIME UP 33% UNDER MAYOR LORI LIGHTFOOT

Key Points: The Chicago Mayoral election is today, Tuesday February 28th, and crime has been a prevalent issue as Mayor Lori Lightfoot fights for re-election. Chicago Police Department statistics show that crime has risen 33% since Lightfoot took office. Comparing 2022 crimes to 2019, murders are up 39%, robberies are up 13%, theft is up […]

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CONSUMER PRICES JUMPED IN JANUARY ABOVE EXPECTATIONS

Key Points: U.S. consumer spending rose by 1.8%, or $312.5 Billion, in January, after falling 0.1% in January. Personal income increased by 0.6%, or $131.1 Billion, in January, up from 0.3% in December, but below the 0.9% consensus. The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.6% in January and is up 5.4% from a […]

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INFLATION REMAINED STUBBORNLY HIGH IN JANUARY

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January from December and is up 6.4% in the last year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% in January and is up 5.6% from the previous year. The overall food index rose 10.1%, food at home rose 11.3%, and food away […]

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HOME SALES FALL FOR 12TH STRAIGHT MONTH

Key Points: Existing-home sales fell for the twelfth straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million. Existing-home sales fell 0.7% in January from December and 36.9% from one year ago. Consensus among economists was a 0.1% increase. The median existing-home sales price climbed 1.3% from one year ago to $359,000. First-time buyers […]

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REAL WAGES FELL 1.8% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points: Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January from December and is up 6.4% in the last year. Despite trending up between January 2017 and January 2021, real […]

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RETAIL SALES REBOUND IN JANUARY DESPITE INFLATION

Key Points: Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 3.0% in January from December after falling 1.1% last month. Consensus among economists was a 1.8% increase. January’s increase comes after two months of decline at the end of last year. Excluding autos, retail sales also rose by 2.3% over the […]

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U.S. ADDS 517K JOBS IN JANUARY, BEATING EXPECTATIONS

Key Points: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January as the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.4%. Consensus among economists was a gain of 185,000 jobs. In January, the unemployed population was little changed at 5.7 million but there were 11 million job openings in December. Leisure and hospitality added 128,000 jobs […]

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U.S. JOB OPENINGS ROSE TO 11 MILLION IN DECEMBER

Key Points: The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work. The tight labor market has pushed total job openings to nearly double the available workers this year, but hiring has slowed amid a broader economic slowdown. Job openings rose by 572,000 to 11 million in December after falling […]

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HOME PRICES FELL IN NOVEMBER FOR THE FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH

Key Points: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 7.7% in the year that ended in November, down from 9.2% in the previous month. This is the fifth straight month home prices have fallen. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.8% year-over-year […]

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U.S. HOUSEHOLDS CUT SPENDING IN DECEMBER

Key Points: U.S. consumer spending fell by 0.2%, or $41.68 Billion, in December, after November was revised to a 0.1% decline. Personal income increased by 0.2%, or $49.5 Billion, in December, down from 0.3% in November. The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% in December and is up 5.0% from a year prior. […]

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UNION MEMBERSHIP HITS RECORD LOW

Key Points: The share of U.S. workers who are members of unions fell to a record low last year even though unions added more members than in any year since 2008. Roughly 10.1% of wage and salary workers were union members last year, down from 10.3% in 2021. Union membership grew by 273,000 last year […]

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EXISTING HOME SALES FELL 34% FROM ONE YEAR AGO

Key Points: Existing-home sales fell for the eleventh straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million. Existing-home sales fell 1.5% in December from November and 34.0% from one year ago. Consensus among economists was a 5.4% drop. The median existing-home sales price climbed 2.3% from one year ago to $366,900. Existing-home sales […]

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INFLATION SLOWED IN DECEMBER, PRICES UP 6.5% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% in December. CPI increased 6.5% from a year ago, down from 7.1% in November, and the lowest reading since October 2021. The rate of price increases remained above 5% for the nineteenth straight month. The index for energy decreased 4.5% over the month while shelter increased […]

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DECEMBER HAD LOWEST JOB GAINS IN TWO YEARS

Key Points: After two straight years of record-setting payroll growth following the pandemic-related disruptions, the labor market is starting to show signs of stress. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 223,000 in December, the smallest gain in two years. Average hourly earnings were up 4.6% in December from the previous year, the narrowest increase since […]

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U.S. ADDS 223K JOBS IN DECEMBER

Key Points: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 223,000 in December as the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5%. Consensus among economists was a gain of 200,000 jobs. In December, the unemployed population fell to 5.7 million but there were 10.5 million job openings in November. Leisure and hospitality added 67,000 jobs in December, employment […]

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CONSUMER SPENDING ROSE MODESTLY IN NOVEMBER

Key Points: U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.1%, or $19.8 Billion, in November, down from 0.9% in October. Personal income increased by 0.4%, or $80.1 Billion, in November, down from 0.7% in October. The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% in November and is up 5.5% from a year prior. The core personal […]

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BUILDER CONFIDENCE DECLINED EVERY MONTH IN 2022

Key Points U.S. builder confidence fell again in December as the combination of high mortgage rates, elevated construction costs, and diminishing consumer demand due to the elevated home prices have dragged builder sentiment down for the entirety of 2022. The NAHB Housing Market index declined to a reading of 31 this month from 33 in […]

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RETAIL SALES FELL SHARPLY IN NOVEMBER

Key Points: Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, fell 0.6% in November from October. Consensus among economists was a 0.1% decline. November’s 0.6% decline comes after a 1.3% gain in October. Excluding autos, retail sales fell by 0.2% over the month. Retail sales are up 7.7% from a year prior […]

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INFLATION EASED IN NOVEMBER, PRICES UP 7.1% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in November. CPI increased 7.1% from a year ago, down from 7.7% in October, and the lowest reading since December 2021. Consensus among economists was a 7.3% increase. The rate of price increases remained above 5% for the eighteenth straight month. The index for shelter was […]

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U.S. ADDS 263K JOBS IN NOVEMBER

Key Points: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 263,000 in November as the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Consensus among economists was a gain of 200,000 jobs. In November, the unemployed population held steady at 6 million but there were 10.3 million job openings in October. Leisure and hospitality added 88,000 jobs in November, […]

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CONSUMER SPENDING SPIKED IN OCTOBER AS INFLATION EASED

Key Points: U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.8%, or $147.9 Billion, in October, up from 0.6% in September. Personal income increased by 0.7%, or $155.3 Billion, in October, up from 0.4% in September. The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in October and is up 6.0% from a year prior. The core personal […]

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JOB OPENINGS FELL IN OCTOBER

Key Points: The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work. The tight labor market has pushed total job openings to nearly double the available workers this year, but hiring has slowed amid a broader economic slowdown. Job openings fell by 353,000 to 10.3 million in October after rising […]

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RETAIL SALES ROSE 1.3% IN OCTOBER AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON

Key Points: Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 1.3% in October from September ahead of the holiday season while inflation slowed but prices remain high. Consensus among economists was a 1.0% gain. October’s 1.3% gain comes after no gains in September. Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 1.3% over […]

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REAL WAGES HAVE FALLEN 2.8% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points: Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October from September and is up 7.7% in the last year. Despite trending up between January 2017 and January 2021, real […]

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INFLATION EASED IN OCTOBER, PRICES UP 7.7% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October, the same reading as September. CPI increased 7.7% from a year ago, down from 8.2% in September. Consensus among economists was an 8.2% increase. The rate of price increases remained above 5% for the seventeenth straight month. Shelter, food, and gasoline indexes increased over […]

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JOB OPENINGS ROSE, HIRING FELL IN SEPTEMBER

Key Points: The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work. The tight labor market has pushed total job openings to nearly double the available workers this year, but hiring has slowed amid a broader economic slowdown. Job openings rose by 437,000 to 10.7 million in September, partially offsetting […]

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UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ROSE IN 9 STATES IN SEPTEMBER

Key Points: Unemployment rates fell in 11 states and the District of Columbia, rose in 9 states, and remained stable in 30 states in September. The U.S. unemployment rate was slightly lower at 3.5% in September. 8 states and the District of Columbia have unemployment rates above the U.S. average. Minnesota has the lowest unemployment […]

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BUILDER CONFIDENCE DOWN 10 STRAIGHT MONTHS

Key Points U.S. builder confidence fell again in October as the combination of rising interest rates, building material bottlenecks, and elevated home prices continue to weaken the housing market. The NAHB Housing Market index declined to a reading of 38 this month from 46 in September. This is the tenth consecutive month that builder sentiment […]

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REAL WAGES HAVE FALLEN 3.0% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points: Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September from August and is up 8.2% in the last year. Despite trending up between January 2017 and January 2021, real […]

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CORE INFLATION HITS NEW 4-DECADE HIGH

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September from August and is up 8.2% in the last year. The core CPI which excludes food and energy rose to 6.6% in September, the highest rate since August 1982. The overall food index rose 11.2%, food at home rose 13.0%, and food away from […]

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U.S. ADDS 263K JOBS IN SEPTEMBER

Key Points: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 263,000 in September as the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5%. Consensus among economists was a gain of 250,000 jobs. In September, the unemployed population fell to 5.75 million but there were 10.1 million job openings in August. Leisure and hospitality added 83,000 jobs in September, health […]

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JOB OPENINGS FELL BY 1.1 MILLION IN AUGUST

Key Points: The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work. The tight labor market has pushed total job openings to nearly double the available workers this year, but hiring has slowed amid a broader economic slowdown. Job openings fell by 1.1 million to 10.1 million in August, down […]

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HOME PRICES SEE FIRST MONTHLY DECLINE IN YEARS

Key Points: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 15.8% in the year that ended in July, down from 18.1% in the previous month. However, the the Index fell 0.3% in July from June, the first month-over-month decline since January 2019. […]

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REAL WAGES HAVE FALLEN 2.8% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points: Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in August from July and is up 8.3% in the last year. Despite trending up between January 2017 and January 2021, real […]

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RETAIL SALES ROSE 0.3% IN AUGUST

Key Points: Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose 0.3% in August from July as inflation remained near its highest level in more than 40 years. Consensus among economists was no change. August’s 0.3% gain comes after July was revised down from 0.0% to -0.4%. Excluding autos, retail sales fell […]

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U.S. JOB OPENINGS ROSE IN JULY

Key Points: The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work. The tight labor market has pushed total job openings to nearly double the available workers this year, but hiring has slowed amid a broader economic slowdown. Job openings rose to 11.2 million in July, up from the upwardly […]

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HOME-PRICE GROWTH SLOWED IN JUNE

Key Points: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 18% in the year that ended in June, down from 19.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 18.6% year-over-year gain, down from 20.5% in the previous month. The 10-City […]

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NEW HOME SALES FALL TO 6-YEAR LOW

Key Points: New home sales fell 12.6% in July from June to a seasonally adjusted 511K. New home sales dropped in June to the lowest level since January 2016. New home sales were 29.6% lower than July 2021. June sales were also revised down to 585K from 590K. The median sales price of new houses […]

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EXISTING HOME SALES FELL IN JULY FOR SIXTH STRAIGHT MONTH

Key Points: Existing-home sales fell for the sixth straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million, the lowest rate since November 2015. Existing-home sales fell 5.9% in July from June and 20.2% from one year ago. Consensus among economists was a 0.2% drop. The median existing-home sales price climbed 10.8% from one […]

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REAL WAGES CONTINUE TO DECLINE, DOWN 3% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points: Real average hourly earnings are hourly earnings adjusted for inflation. They are one measure of real wages, which represent the economic return to work. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in July from June and is up 8.5% in the last year. Despite trending up between January 2017 and January 2021, real […]

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INFLATION COOLED IN JULY, REMAINS NEAR 40-YEAR HIGH

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in July after rising 1.3% in June. CPI increased 8.5% from a year ago, down from 9.1% in June, the highest reading since the period ending November 1981. Prices remained above 5% for the fourteenth straight month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose […]

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U.S. ADDED 528K JOBS IN JULY

Key Points: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July as the unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.5%. Consensus among economists was a gain of 250,000 jobs. In July, the unemployed population fell to 5.7 million but there were 10.7 million job openings in June. Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by 96,000 jobs, […]

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CONSUMER SPENDING ROSE IN JUNE, PRICES REMAIN HIGH

Key Points: U.S. consumer spending rose by 1.1%, or $32.7 Billion, in June. Personal income increased by 0.6%, or $133.5 Billion, in June, the same reading as May. The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 1% in June and is up 6.8% from a year prior. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which […]

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NEW HOME SALES FELL TO 2-YEAR LOW IN JUNE

Key Points: New home sales fell 8.1% in June from May to a seasonally adjusted 590K. New home sales dropped in June to the lowest level since April 2020. May sales were also revised down to 642K from 696K. The volume of new single‐family home sale are down 17.4% from a year ago. The Right […]

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INFLATION ACCELERATED TO 9.1% IN JUNE, LED BY GASOLINE

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.3% in June and is up 9.1% in the last year, the highest reading since 1981. Price increases in the last year have been broad, impacting businesses and consumers. The overall food index rose 10.4%, food at home rose 12.2%, and food away from home rose 7.7% […]

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INFLATION HITS NEW 40-YEAR HIGH, UP 9.1% IN LAST YEAR

Key Points: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.3% in June after rising 1.0% in May. CPI increased 9.1% from a year ago, the highest reading since the period ending November 1981. Prices remained above 5% for the thirteenth straight month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.7% in June and is […]

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U.S. ADDS 372K JOBS IN JUNE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOLDS AT 3.6%

Key Points: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June as the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%. Consensus among economists was a gain of 268,000 jobs. June’s job growth is the lowest since April 2021. In June, the unemployed population was essentially unchanged at 5.9 million but there were 11.3 million job openings […]

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HIRING DEMAND REMAINS STRONG IN MAY

Key Points: The number of available jobs since May 2021 continues to outnumber Americans looking for work. Job openings decreased to 11.3 million in May, down from 11.4 million in April, and the record high 11.9 million in March. The U.S. added 390,000 jobs in May but there were 5.95 million people unemployed. In May, […]

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