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The Data that Drives Policy Lives Here.

UPDATE: S&P 500 DURING SARS AND CORONAVIRUS

KEY POINTS: The impact of Coronavirus on U.S. equity markets has become more significant over the past few days, as markets fear the impact on the U.S. will be larger. The S&P 500 down 6.1 percent since its recent peak on January 17th, 2020, after China reported the virus to the World Health Organization. This […]

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Average Hourly Earnings Rose 3 Percent Year-Over-Year

Key Points: Average hourly earnings rose 3.1 percent in January for private sector employees. Wage growth has been at or above 2.9 percent for 18 consecutive months. Economist Corner: As the record-long economic expansion continues, average hourly earnings for all private employees have continued to increase at or above 2.9 percent. These gains benefit low-skilled […]

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CONSUMER SENTIMENT UP, HIGHEST SINCE 2018

KEY POINTS: The index of consumers sentiment rose 1.1 percent in February from January to the highest level since 2018, exceeding market expectations. The index has risen 2.75 percent since December 2016. The expected index, an indicator of how consumers’ future sentiment expectations, also rose to 92.6. This data aligns with recent Gallup surveys, showing […]

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MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT 423,000 ABOVE TREND

Key Points: U.S. manufacturing employment continues to emerge from its secular decline. Manufacturing employment remains well about its pre-2017 trend, with the economy adding 423,000 manufacturing jobs since December 2016 relative to a linear trend estimated from January 2015 through December 2016. The net change in manufacturing employment since December 2016 has been 495,000 manufacturing […]

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ECONOMY ADDS 225,000 JOBS IN JANUARY

KEY POINTS: The U.S. economy added 225,000 jobs in January as the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.6 percent. The largest job gains were experienced in the construction (+44,000 jobs), health care (+36,000 jobs), and transportation and warehousing (+28,000 jobs). Since December 2016, the U.S. economy has added a total of 6.7 million jobs. […]

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MANUFACTURING REBOUNDS AS SENTIMENT IMPROVES IN JANUARY

KEY POINTS: The manufacturing sector rebounded in January, with the purchasing managers index (PMI) rising 3.1 percentage points in January to 50.9 percent. This indicates an expanding manufacturing sector after several months of contraction. Six of the PMI’s 10 subindexes recorded an expansion in January. Among these, the most pronounced were production (up 6 percentage […]

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INTERACTIVE: NET MIGRATION AND MARGINAL TAX RATES

KEY POINTS: This interactive map allows you to explore out-migration from your state in 2018. Click the top right to toggle between Marginal Tax Rates and Net Migration. States with higher marginal tax rates, like California and New York, have experienced the largest out-migration in the last year. Conversely, states with no income tax, like […]

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S&P 500 DURING SARS AND CORONAVIRUS

KEY POINTS: While the awful human cost of the Coronavirus is climbing, and disruptions in China are now severe, the Coronavirus has thus far had a modest impact on U.S. equity markets. The S&P 500 down 3.1 percent since its recent peak on January 17th, 2020, after China reported the virus to the World Health […]

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UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN ACROSS U.S. STATES SINCE DECEMBER 2016

KEY POINTS: In the three years since December 2016, the unemployment rate has fallen in all but three states (Mississippi, Nebraska which was unchanged, and South Dakota). The average state has experienced a decline in the unemployment rate of 0.9 percentage points over this period. When taken as a share of population, the states with […]

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TAXPAYERS FLEEING HIGH-TAX STATES

KEY POINTS: Higher marginal tax rates are correlated with greater outmigration in 2018. New York and California had among the highest marginal tax rates and experienced the largest net outmigration in 2018. Texas and Florida, states without any income taxes, experienced the largest net migration in 2018 with over 100,000 individuals moving. ECONOMIST CORNER In […]

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WAGE GROWTH HIGHEST AMONG LOW INCOME AMERICANS

Key Points: Median wage growth ticked up 3.7 percent in December, according to the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker. The largest growth has been among the lowest 25 percent of income earners, who experienced wage growth of 4.6 percent in December. Since December 2016, wage growth for this group has averaged 4.1 percent. ECONOMIST CORNER: The […]

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CORPORATE TAX RECEIPTS UP IN 2020

KEY POINTS: Total tax receipts in the first fiscal quarter of 2020 increased by $35 billion compared with the same period last year. This represents a 5 percent increase in tax receipts, raising the overall level to $806 billion. This is partially driven by an increase in corporate income taxes, which increased by $11 billion […]

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REPEALING TCJA WOULD RAISE TAXES ON NEARLY ALL AMERICANS

Key Points: Repealing the 2017 tax cuts will raise taxes on individual families. The Right Facts has calculated the additional amount of income facing taxation (figure above) and the additional tax burden (tables below). Absent the 2017 tax cuts, single filers/heads of household with one dependent will be taxed on an additional $7,523 in income. […]

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SALT Cap Repeal Boon to Wealthy

In December 2019, the House passed the “Restoring Tax Fairness for States and Localities Act” by a 218 to 206 margin.   The bill would eliminate the $10,000 limit on State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions that was put in place by the 2017 tax bill for 2020 and 2021 for taxpayers who itemize their tax […]

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Average Real Household Disposable Income up $7,000

Key Points: Real disposable income per household has increased $6,913 since December 2016. Disposable income is the amount households have left over after income taxes. Economist Corner: Rising real disposable income is further evidence that the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) has worked as intended. The economics literature suggests that lowering the corporate tax […]

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GDP Growth Outpacing CBO Expectations

Key Points: GDP has been stronger than projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), with the level in the third quarter of 2019 1.45 percent greater than projected in the CBO’s August 2016 release. Consensus forecasts for the fourth quarter expect this outperformance to continue into this year. This translates to $277 billion in additional […]

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The Media’s “Recession” Appears Over

Analysis: Google search interest in the word “recession” has fallen in recent months, after spiking in August to levels not seen since the Great Recession. This follows a summer in which the media narrative focused on recession risks. This suggests that the media narrative about an imminent recession is over. Economist Corner: Economic expansions do […]

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Investment Up As Expected Under TCJA

Key Points: The Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) lowered the cost for businesses to purchase new capital. Nonresidential fixed capital investment had plateaued in 2015 and 2016. Key TCJA components were retroactive to 2017:Q4 and that is when investment began to accelerate. In 2019, the amount of productive capital in the U.S. continued to […]

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Average Hourly Earnings Rose 2.9 Percent Year-Over-Year

Key Points: Average hourly earnings rose 2.9 percent in December for private sector employees. Wage growth has been at or above 2.9 percent for 17 consecutive months. Economist Corner: A tight labor market combined with positive business sentiment continues to put upward pressure on wages. This is good news for future consumption, a key driver […]

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U.S. Adds 145,000 Jobs in December

Key Points: The U.S. economy added 145,000 jobs in December, slightly below market expectations of 160,000 jobs. Since December 2016, the economy has created more than 6.9 million jobs. This is 5.3 million more jobs than the 1.7 million projected by the Congressional Budget Office for that time period. Significant positive momentum in the U.S. […]

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Manufacturing Employment Remains 435,000 Above Trend in December

Key Points: Manufacturing employment slipped slightly in December but remained well above its pre-2017 trend. The economy has added 435,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2017 relative to a linear trend estimated from January 2015 through December 2016. Economist Corner: Employment in the manufacturing sector has experienced a resurgence since December 2016, with 435,000 jobs created […]

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UPDATE: Labor Force Participation Rate Up Since Tax Cuts

While many claimed the drop in workforce participation in 2012 was part of a long-term trend, the turnaround following the 2017 tax cuts suggests otherwise. More people are working across age groups and the increased participation is large. Key Points: After the 2012 tax hike, the labor force participation rate dropped for all age groups. […]

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Average Hourly Earnings Rose 3.1 Percent Year-Over-Year

Analysis: Average hourly earnings rose 3.1 percent in October for private sector employees. Wage growth has been at or above 3.0 percent for 16 consecutive months. Economist Corner: A tight labor combined with positive sentiment continue to put upward pressure on wages. This is a positive for consumption, a key driver of the U.S. economy.

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Manufacturing Employment Rebounds, Up 447K Over Trend

Analysis: Manufacturing employment rebounded in November, increasing by 54,000 as the GM strike was resolved. This reversed the employment losses recorded in October due to the strike. There have been 447,000 manufacturing jobs added since January 2017 relative to a linear trend estimated from January 2015 through December 2016. Economist Corner: Employment in the manufacturing […]

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U.S. Adds 266,000 Jobs in November

Analysis: The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in November, exceeding market expectations of approximately 187,000 jobs. Job gains for September and October were revised upward a combined 41,000 jobs. This indicates continued strength in the U.S. labor market. Economist Corner: The labor market continues to boom. A rising tide may lift all boats, but some […]

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With Expensing, New Durable Good Orders up 11%

Economist Corner: The intended effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act continue to appear in the data. Durable goods represent one form of investment by businesses. The data demonstrate that durable goods orders have risen following the tax legislation. But even the subtleties of the legislation now correspond to variation in the data. The […]

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Number of Economically Significant Rules Down in 2017, 2018

Analysis: Since 2016, the U.S. has published 59 economically significant regulations – far below the 161 economically significant regulations over the previous two years. The average number of economically significant regulations was 54 in the years between 2000 and 2016. Economist Corner: Regulatory actions are “economically significant” if the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs […]

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Durable Goods Orders up 0.6 percent in October

Analysis: New orders for manufactured durable goods rose $1.5 billion (0.6 percent) in October. Manufactured durable goods includes big-ticket items, such as household appliances. There has now been increased durable goods orders in four of the last five months. Increased durable goods orders is a positive signal for manufacturing. Economist Corner: Manufacturer orders of new […]

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Consumer Sentiment, Expectations up in October

Consumer sentiment rose in November to 96.8, an increase of 1.3 points from above the October reading of 95.5. The expected index, an indicator how consumers’ future sentiment expectations, also rose to 87.3 from 84.2. Economist Corner: As the consumer goes, so goes the economy. That is true at least in the United States. Consumption […]

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Tax Cuts: More Workers Tax Increases: Fewer Workers

While many claim that the drop in workforce participation in 2012 was part of a long-term trend, the turnaround following the 2017 tax cuts suggests otherwise. Not only are more people working across age groups, but the improvement is actually quite enormous. Analysis: The labor force participation rate dropped in the 21 months after the […]

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More People Seeking Work Today than Three Years Ago

From December 2016 through September 2019, the share of the population in the labor force has grown across all demographic groups as people come off the sidelines. This is especially true for black men and Hispanic women, through people from every demographic group have increased their participation. Analysis: The labor force participation rate for black […]

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Hispanic Men & Women See Large Increases in Jobs

There has been particularly significant job growth for Hispanic men and women since December 2016. While America’s Hispanic population has seen the biggest gains, all demographic groups have seen job growth. Analysis: For both men and women, percent increases in jobs were higher for black and Hispanic members of the population than for white members […]

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Inflation Remains Subdued through October

Analysis: Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), appears subdued in the October reading. While headline CPI inched up 0.4 percent in October from September, it has risen 1.8 percent over the last 12 months. The largest contributor to the increase in October was an increase in energy prices. CPI for all items […]

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Poverty Down in 2018, According to Census Bureau Data

Analysis: The percent of people in poverty in the U.S. fell 0.5 percentage points in 2018, meaning 1.4 million fewer people are in poverty than in 2017. Poverty in principal cities has fallen 1.2 percent over the same period. The poverty rates for children under 18 decreased by 1.2 percentage points in 2018. Economist Corner: […]

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Income inequality falls in 2018

Analysis: The Gini index, a measure of income inequality, fell 0.7 percent in 2018. This indicates that the level of wealth inequality has declined. Economist Corner: The Gini index is a statistical measure of income inequality where 0 indicates all households having the same share of income and 1 indicates one household has all the […]

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Six Million More Americans Employed Since December 2016

From December 2016 through September 2019, the U.S. economy has added approximately six million jobs. Key Takeaways: White women have experienced the largest number of labor force gains over this period Overall, about 3.2 million of these labor force gains have been among women while 2.7 million have been by men. Analysis: Projected job gains […]

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