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CHINESE CONSUMPTION, INVESTMENT, FALLS AMID COVID-19 RESPONSE

KEY POINTS: Chinese measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 within the country had a dramatic impact on the economy, according to preliminary data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China. Data from January to February are released together to eliminate seasonal factors from the Chinese New Year and allow comparison to the previous […]

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U.S. AND GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS LOWERED AMID COVID-19

KEY TAKEAWAYS: Economists in the private sector and non-governmental institutions have lowered forecasts for economic growth amid concerns over COVID-19. The OECD has revised down its forecast for global growth in 2020 from 2.9 percent to 2.4 percent, with G20 growth revised down from 3.2 percent to 2.7 percent. While the OECD has revised U.S. […]

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UPDATE: THE FACTS ON COVID-19

Right Facts endeavors to provide the most up-to-date information that is relevant to ongoing policy discussions. To that end, we have provided several posts on the spread of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19. Continuing our previous work, we have updated our figure comparing the performance of the S&P 500 during SARS and COVID-19. KEY POINTS: There […]

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U.S. CARBON EMISSIONS DOWN SINCE 2007 PEAK

KEY POINTS: U.S. carbon emissions peaked in 2007 at 6.0 billion metric tons and have since fallen by 12 percent to 5.3 billion metric tons in 2018. Though carbon emissions increased 3 percent from 5.1 billion metric tons in 2017 to 5.3 billion metric tons in 2018, this can be partially explained by stronger economic […]

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MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT 423,000 ABOVE TREND

Key Points: U.S. manufacturing employment continues to emerge from its secular decline. Manufacturing employment remains well about its pre-2017 trend, with the economy adding 423,000 manufacturing jobs since December 2016 relative to a linear trend estimated from January 2015 through December 2016. The net change in manufacturing employment since December 2016 has been 495,000 manufacturing […]

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Average Real Household Disposable Income up $7,000

Key Points: Real disposable income per household has increased $6,913 since December 2016. Disposable income is the amount households have left over after income taxes. Economist Corner: Rising real disposable income is further evidence that the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) has worked as intended. The economics literature suggests that lowering the corporate tax […]

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GDP Growth Outpacing CBO Expectations

Key Points: GDP has been stronger than projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), with the level in the third quarter of 2019 1.45 percent greater than projected in the CBO’s August 2016 release. Consensus forecasts for the fourth quarter expect this outperformance to continue into this year. This translates to $277 billion in additional […]

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The Media’s “Recession” Appears Over

Analysis: Google search interest in the word “recession” has fallen in recent months, after spiking in August to levels not seen since the Great Recession. This follows a summer in which the media narrative focused on recession risks. This suggests that the media narrative about an imminent recession is over. Economist Corner: Economic expansions do […]

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Investment Up As Expected Under TCJA

Key Points: The Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) lowered the cost for businesses to purchase new capital. Nonresidential fixed capital investment had plateaued in 2015 and 2016. Key TCJA components were retroactive to 2017:Q4 and that is when investment began to accelerate. In 2019, the amount of productive capital in the U.S. continued to […]

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Average Hourly Earnings Rose 2.9 Percent Year-Over-Year

Key Points: Average hourly earnings rose 2.9 percent in December for private sector employees. Wage growth has been at or above 2.9 percent for 17 consecutive months. Economist Corner: A tight labor market combined with positive business sentiment continues to put upward pressure on wages. This is good news for future consumption, a key driver […]

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U.S. Adds 145,000 Jobs in December

Key Points: The U.S. economy added 145,000 jobs in December, slightly below market expectations of 160,000 jobs. Since December 2016, the economy has created more than 6.9 million jobs. This is 5.3 million more jobs than the 1.7 million projected by the Congressional Budget Office for that time period. Significant positive momentum in the U.S. […]

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Manufacturing Employment Remains 435,000 Above Trend in December

Key Points: Manufacturing employment slipped slightly in December but remained well above its pre-2017 trend. The economy has added 435,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2017 relative to a linear trend estimated from January 2015 through December 2016. Economist Corner: Employment in the manufacturing sector has experienced a resurgence since December 2016, with 435,000 jobs created […]

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UPDATE: Labor Force Participation Rate Up Since Tax Cuts

While many claimed the drop in workforce participation in 2012 was part of a long-term trend, the turnaround following the 2017 tax cuts suggests otherwise. More people are working across age groups and the increased participation is large. Key Points: After the 2012 tax hike, the labor force participation rate dropped for all age groups. […]

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Average Hourly Earnings Rose 3.1 Percent Year-Over-Year

Analysis: Average hourly earnings rose 3.1 percent in October for private sector employees. Wage growth has been at or above 3.0 percent for 16 consecutive months. Economist Corner: A tight labor combined with positive sentiment continue to put upward pressure on wages. This is a positive for consumption, a key driver of the U.S. economy.

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Manufacturing Employment Rebounds, Up 447K Over Trend

Analysis: Manufacturing employment rebounded in November, increasing by 54,000 as the GM strike was resolved. This reversed the employment losses recorded in October due to the strike. There have been 447,000 manufacturing jobs added since January 2017 relative to a linear trend estimated from January 2015 through December 2016. Economist Corner: Employment in the manufacturing […]

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With Expensing, New Durable Good Orders up 11%

Economist Corner: The intended effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act continue to appear in the data. Durable goods represent one form of investment by businesses. The data demonstrate that durable goods orders have risen following the tax legislation. But even the subtleties of the legislation now correspond to variation in the data. The […]

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Number of Economically Significant Rules Down in 2017, 2018

Analysis: Since 2016, the U.S. has published 59 economically significant regulations – far below the 161 economically significant regulations over the previous two years. The average number of economically significant regulations was 54 in the years between 2000 and 2016. Economist Corner: Regulatory actions are “economically significant” if the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs […]

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Durable Goods Orders up 0.6 percent in October

Analysis: New orders for manufactured durable goods rose $1.5 billion (0.6 percent) in October. Manufactured durable goods includes big-ticket items, such as household appliances. There has now been increased durable goods orders in four of the last five months. Increased durable goods orders is a positive signal for manufacturing. Economist Corner: Manufacturer orders of new […]

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Consumer Sentiment, Expectations up in October

Consumer sentiment rose in November to 96.8, an increase of 1.3 points from above the October reading of 95.5. The expected index, an indicator how consumers’ future sentiment expectations, also rose to 87.3 from 84.2. Economist Corner: As the consumer goes, so goes the economy. That is true at least in the United States. Consumption […]

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Inflation Remains Subdued through October

Analysis: Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), appears subdued in the October reading. While headline CPI inched up 0.4 percent in October from September, it has risen 1.8 percent over the last 12 months. The largest contributor to the increase in October was an increase in energy prices. CPI for all items […]

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Poverty Down in 2018, According to Census Bureau Data

Analysis: The percent of people in poverty in the U.S. fell 0.5 percentage points in 2018, meaning 1.4 million fewer people are in poverty than in 2017. Poverty in principal cities has fallen 1.2 percent over the same period. The poverty rates for children under 18 decreased by 1.2 percentage points in 2018. Economist Corner: […]

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Income inequality falls in 2018

Analysis: The Gini index, a measure of income inequality, fell 0.7 percent in 2018. This indicates that the level of wealth inequality has declined. Economist Corner: The Gini index is a statistical measure of income inequality where 0 indicates all households having the same share of income and 1 indicates one household has all the […]

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Six Million More Americans Employed Since December 2016

From December 2016 through September 2019, the U.S. economy has added approximately six million jobs. Key Takeaways: White women have experienced the largest number of labor force gains over this period Overall, about 3.2 million of these labor force gains have been among women while 2.7 million have been by men. Analysis: Projected job gains […]

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